Geopolitics in 2025: Fragmented Alliances and Security in Flux

In 2025, the post-post-Cold War world is defined less by ideological camps and more by fragmented alignments, technological friction, and regional assertiveness. The assumptions that shaped global security frameworks in the 1990s and early 2000s are now obsolete, replaced by power dispersion and multipolar risk.

The Fractured Global Order

No single actor dominates the international system. Instead, geopolitical influence is increasingly shared—often uneasily—among power centers with conflicting visions.

U.S.-China Techno-Strategic Rivalry

The U.S. and China continue their long-term competition, now focused as much on microchips and supply chains as military maneuvers:

• Semiconductor decoupling intensifies, with both nations establishing chip alliances and trade walls.
• AI regulation and cyber norms become key battlegrounds for international influence.
• Military posturing in the Indo-Pacific escalates, with near-daily U.S.-China encounters in contested waters.

Europe’s Strategic Rebalancing

Europe moves cautiously toward strategic autonomy:

• The EU expands defense coordination under PESCO, but still relies on U.S. military infrastructure.
• Post-Ukraine war fatigue fuels debate over NATO’s role amid U.S. signals of prioritizing Indo-Pacific commitments.
• Energy diversification post-Russia continues to reshape foreign policy and trade flows.

BRICS Expansion and the “Global South”

The BRICS bloc has grown to include additional states in Africa, the Middle East, and Latin America:

• De-dollarization efforts and cross-border payment systems gain traction.
• New multilateral security dialogues challenge Western-led forums like the G7.
• Frustrations over perceived Western hypocrisy (e